Decision Making for Leaders:
Thinking Probabilistically

Learn to approach decisions with a probabilistic mindset—one that embraces uncertainty, quantifies risk, and uses data-driven tools.
Leaders will learn to apply probabilistic frameworks to personal decisions, while also building a culture of probabilistic thinking within their teams, empowering others to approach decisions with strategic foresight and evidence-based judgment.

You Will Learn To:

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    Understand and apply probabilistic thinking to improve decision-making under uncertainty, with respect to the past, present, and future.

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    Differentiate between objective and subjective probabilities and apply each appropriately.

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    Use concepts such as base rates, expected value, and Bayesian thinking to improve judgments.

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    Apply tools such as 90% confidence intervals, explicit forecasting, and scenario planning to create more robust, data-driven decisions.

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    Foster a culture of probabilistic thinking within your teams, encouraging better decision-making across your organization.

Course Overview

  • The course is taught live and virtually. It is divided into three sessions, each focusing on specific elements of probabilistic thinking.

    Sessions are interactive and include lectures, case studies, group discussions, and practical exercises to ensure participants can apply the concepts to real-world leadership scenarios.

    Space is limited!
    We keep our cohorts small and focused to ensure a highly-engaging environment where personalized attention, dynamic discussions, and tailored feedback are the standard.

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  • Introduction to the core concepts of probabilistic thinking and exploration of how it applies to decision-making about the past, present, and future.

  • Deepen understanding of how to apply probabilistic thinking to real-world leadership decisions, focusing on improving predictions, making informed choices, and communicating decisions clearly.

  • Learn to apply probabilistic thinking to forecasting, improve predictive accuracy, and foster a culture of probabilistic thinking in your teams and organizations.

Upcoming Courses

Decision Making for Leaders:
Thinking Probabilistically

Tuesday, November 12 - Session 1
Wednesday, November 13 - Session 2
Friday, November 15 - Session 3

1:00-2:30 pm Eastern
Virtual

Questions?

Contact us:  info@decisionleadershipinstitute.org